Is Russia’s fuel crisis a temporary squeeze or the collapse of an industry? Two leading economists debated the question, unable to agree on how much refining capacity is left.
On August 17, Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Berlin-based Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said on The Breakfast Show that despite Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries, Russia’s refining output remains fairly high. By his estimate, refining has fallen by only 25–28%. Two days later, economic commentator Vyacheslav Shiryaev criticized Vakulenko on the same program, calling his remarks “nonsense.” He said 65–70% of Russia’s oil refining has been knocked out, and that any optimistic assessm
Claims & verification status
Sergey Vakulenko claims that Russia's refining output remains fairly high despite Ukrainian strikes, estimating a decrease of only 25-28%.
Vyacheslav Shiryaev claims that 65-70% of Russia's oil refining capacity has been knocked out.
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Impact analysis
Who claims what
- —Both economists have differing views on the extent of the damage to Russia's oil refining industry.
- —Vyacheslav Shiryaev claims that 65-70% of Russia's oil refining capacity has been knocked out. (per Vyacheslav Shiryaev)
Our assessment
Divergent expert assessments highlight significant uncertainty regarding the operational status of Russia's oil refining sector after reported Ukrainian strikes. If Vakulenko's…